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From: John Trader	1/20/2001 2:17:00 PM
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FWIW, The article below has some opposing views on AMAT at this point. It is from the Part II "Roundtable", January 22nd Issue of Barrons: WSJ/Barrons Subscription Required - $75/yr last time I checked (good investment IMHO): http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB979941833922623254.htm Selection 1 From Article: ----------------------------- Cohen: ... "This year I have two tech names, indicative of my increased comfort level with technology. In March of last year we indicated to our clients that we were dramatically underweight in technology in our model portfolio. A few weeks ago we said we were overweight once again, because we think there are some good values. We're looking at some of the more cyclically sensitive categories, such as semiconductors, that have been very hard-hit. Applied Materials in some ways is the quality name in the semiconductor-equipment group. Q: What's the P/E currently? Cohen: The stock is trading for about 16 times earnings. We're forecasting long-term growth in excess of 20%. The stock closed Friday [January 5] at 42.69. The range has been 35 at the low and 115 at the 52-week high. The stock is up 10%-12% over the past few weeks, but on the other hand, it's much closer to the bottom. This was one of the first stocks in one of the first sectors to get hit. It will be among the first to recover. Neff: That's kind of bothersome, because we're going through a wrenching reassessment. The guys who really get hurt are the capital-equipment guys. Cohen: John, I agree with you wholeheartedly. My point is that they went through their wrenching process beginning six months ago. Neff: I'm not talking about the stock. I'm talking about earnings. Cohen: There may be earnings volatility in the first half of 2001, so the P/E I gave you might be questionable. On the other hand, once investors feel that we've seen the trough in economic activity, this is the sort of stock they'll come back to. Black: It's more of a second-half stock. I think it will have some difficult quarters because supposedly 11 new fabs are going to be ramped [11 new fabrication plants will be coming on line]. Cohen: Other near-term risks would include the fact some of the excess capacity in the industry is in Asia, and we don't yet know the full extent of what's there. But I'm giving you stocks for a 12-month list. Samberg: Are revenues going to accelerate? This has been a restructuring story for quite some time. Cohen: Revenues will accelerate in the second half of the year. Black: Applied Materials has a bulletproof balance sheet. They have $4 billion in net cash sitting on the balance sheet now. This is a money machine. It generates nothing but free cash." Selection 2 From Article: ----------------------------- Black: ... "We own other things, but I think it's too early to be buying the Applied Materials and KLA-Tencors in this cycle. There's more staying power quarter-to-quarter in companies like Arrow because of their broad distribution."

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