| To: LG who started this subject | 4/3/2001 12:20:30 PM |
| From: gfs_1999 | of 84053 |
| |
Jerry Favors Analysis - Monday, April 2, 2001 8 pm
On our Sunday evening update we stated that the failure of
the 3-Day Chart to turn down last Friday meant that we should
see a rally this week above 9960 on a print basis and 10013
intraday in the Dow. At the highs today the Dow was up
another 114 points, reaching a print high of 9992.73 near
11:52 EDT. The Dow then turned down, and at the lows
was down 173 points for the day. The Dow closed down
100 points, at 9777.93. The Nasdaq never really kicked in on
the upside to any serious degree today, and this afternoon it
fell below the 1794 level we have discussed the last several
days. This gives a short-term negative signal for the Nasdaq.
The only way this signal on the Nasdaq could be reversed
would be for the Nasdaq to rise above 1980 from here.
We are not convined that either the Dow or the Nasdaq
will see a major decline in this time frame. We do believe
that new lows in the Dow are coming this year. We are just
not convinced that we will see new lows below 9106 on a print
basis and 9047 intraday in the Dow in this time frame. We may
see a decline which challenges those prior lows, but we doubt
we are ready to break significantly below those two levels in
the Dow just yet.
The Gann Weekly Chart on the Dow turned up today. Normally
this means that higher prices are coming, at least short term.
However, when you are in a Bear Market you will often find
that the Gann Charts will turn up fairly close to the next
short-term high. Any decline below 9509 on a print basis in
the Dow, and 9489 intraday will turn the Weekly Chart down
from here, and that will signal a potential test of the March
22 lows of 9106 on a print basis and 9047 intraday. We do
believe the Dow will ultimately fall below the March 22 lows
of 9106 on a print basis and 9047 intraday. However, as we
have told you, even if we see a stronger decline in the Dow
this week, we are not convinced that the Dow will fall to new
lows in this time frame. We may well see a stronger decline
this week, but we are not convinced that the Dow will see new
lows this week.
Any decline below 9705 on a print basis in the Dow
tomorrow will signal that a stronger decline is coming, at
least very short term tomorrow. Any decline below 9722 on a
print basis in the Dow tomorrow morning will turn the Hourly
Trendline down, and while that will not generate a new short-
term sell signal, it will suggest that a stronger pullback is
coming tomorrow morning. Any rally above 9994 on a print
basis in the Dow tomorrow will signal that some further rally
is coming very short term, but at this point we do not believe
the Dow will be able to significantly exceed the 10100 to
10200 area, before turning back down again. If 9509 on a print
basis is broken, we believe we could ultimately see a test of
the March 22 lows. |
