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To: TobagoJack who started this subject	10/24/2002 9:42:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 867

Gee Jay, see any one you know who knows you;0) http://www.stratfor.com/premium/analysis_print.php?ID=207194 First Glimpses of China's Next-Generation Leadership 24 October 2002 Summary Early Players in China's Leadership Shuffle Huang Ju Jia Qinglin Zeng Qinghong The first signs of movement in China's upcoming leadership transition are emerging: Two key Communist Party officials are being transferred from Beijing and Shanghai to the "central authorities." Huang Ju and Jia Qinglin are both close allies of President Jiang Zemin, and their promotion underscores his desire to retain a strong voice in the reformulated Politburo. This could be the first hint of the shape of things to come. Analysis China's official People's Daily reported Oct. 23 that the Communist Party secretaries for Shanghai and Beijing, Huang Ju and Jia Qinglin, were being "transferred to posts at the central authorities." The transfer of Huang and Jia, both considered close allies of President Jiang Zemin, may be the first signs of the shape of things to come as China prepares for a major leadership change. Beginning with the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which kicks off Nov. 8, and continuing through the National People's Congress in March, China will undergo one of the most significant leadership changes in the half-century of the People's Republic's existence. Most of China's top leaders, including Jiang, Prime Minister Zhu Rongji and NPC Chairman Li Peng, are expected to relinquish their posts to younger cadre members. The leadership change will be the first well-planned, major turnover of power in China since 1949. Yet despite the planning, the process will not necessarily be smooth, nor will it necessarily represent a true shift in power to the younger generation. Jiang and several of his contemporaries in high positions are reluctant to hand over power and will remain highly influential behind the scenes. The transfers of Huang and Jia foreshadow some of the impending changes and highlight Jiang's desire to retain influence on the inner workings of the party. Huang follows the paths of Jiang and Zhu, building up his career in Shanghai. He is reportedly close to Jiang and appears tapped for a position on the seven-member Central Committee of the Politburo, the top body in the party hierarchy. Jia, who is rumored to have been the best man at Jiang's wedding, is even closer to the president, though he may not make it to a Central Committee post due to his potential links to one of China's largest corruption scandals. Jia's wife was implicated in a massive corruption and smuggling scandal in Xiamen, Fujian province, and given the current anti-corruption mood in Beijing, Jia will have a tough time rising to the top. However, in his favor is his term in Beijing, where he spearheaded China's successful bid for the 2008 summer Olympics. Both Jia and Huang were re-elected to their party posts in Beijing and Shanghai in May, just five months before their transfers. The unexpectedly swift change of positions emphasizes the opacity of the current leadership transition. But Jiang, in moving them just before his visit to the United States, also is reminding Beijing that he is still in charge and that, even after his summit meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush, he will continue to direct China's internal affairs. While the final makeup of the new government remains unclear, Jiang already has begun very publicly positioning his allies for prominent roles. In the shuffle that brought Huang and Jia to the center, another key Jiang ally and adviser, Zeng Qinghong, was succeeded as head of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee by former Chongqing Party Secretary He Guoqiang. Zeng is in line for a potentially high-level position, possibly vice president or even party general secretary, a post his rival, current Vice President Hu Jintao, also is expecting. In the days leading up to Nov. 8, the jockeying for position will continue as top Chinese officials seek to gain a place for their protégés and allies. But with Jiang out in front, it seems likely he and his allies will continue to dominate the Chinese political scene for some years after the formal transition of power takes place. Huang Ju Recently replaced as Communist Party secretary in Shanghai, Huang Ju now has been moved to a position within the "central authorities," a sure sign that he is rising in the party hierarchy. Huang already is a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, but in November he may be promoted to join the Standing Committee of the Politburo, the highest decision-making body in the party. Huang, considered an ally of President Jiang Zemin, follows in the footsteps of Jiang and Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, both of whom served their time in Shanghai as well. Huang was the first Shanghai mayor to be promoted to local party secretary from within the ranks of the Shanghai bureaucracy as opposed to being sent from Beijing. Coming from Shanghai and having connections to both Jiang and Zhu, Huang is in a prime position for advancement, but he has been passed over before. One thing that continues to make some Chinese leaders view him with caution is his son-in-law, a Taiwanese-American. Jia Qinglin Jia Qinglin recently was transferred from his post as Communist Party secretary in Beijing to a position within "the central authorities." He is such a close friend of President Jiang that some reports suggest he was the best man at Jiang's wedding. Prior to his move to Beijing, Jia served as secretary of the Fujian Party Committee and as chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fujian Provincial People's Congress. His move to Beijing followed the ouster of Chen Xitong in one of China's largest corruption cases. But Jia himself has been tainted with scandal as well. Jia's former wife, Lin Youfang, was at the center of one of China's largest corruption scandals in decades, centered in Xiamen, Fujian province. Taiwanese media at the time reported that Jia's separation from his wife was at the recommendation of Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, who was leading the investigation in Xiamen. Although tainted by scandal, Jia has a powerful advocate in Jiang. Jia oversaw Beijing's celebrations for the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. In addition, Jia spearheaded Beijing's successful bid to host the 2008 Summer Olympics, a major priority not only for the city but also for the entire nation. Zeng Qinghong Zeng Qinghong recently was replaced as director of the Organization Department of the CPC's Central Committee. He is an alternate member of the Politburo and appears to be President Jiang Zemin's personal preference as successor. But necessary compromise between China's political factions means that Zeng may step into Hu Jintao's shoes as vice president rather than taking over as president. Zeng, however, might assume Jiang's role of party general secretary, a balance to Hu's presidency. As Jiang's close confidant, Zeng has taken several important foreign trips -- including to North Korea and Japan, states for which he assists Jiang in formulating policy. Sometimes known as the president's "hatchet man," Zeng helped to quell opposition factions as Jiang consolidated his position as the central figure of the Third Generation. Zeng is credited with bringing down Beijing's powerful mayor, Chen Xitong, as well as Jiang rival and former National People's Congress chairman Qiao Shi and the politico-military "Yang Clan," which was driving the People's Liberation Army against Jiang. Zeng's contemporaries view him with extreme caution that stems from his penchant for political manipulation and his close ties to Jiang. His rivalry with Hu may be the first major political challenge facing China's next president.

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