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To: Pam Wooten who wrote (43882)	3/28/2003 5:41:17 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) of 50153

<Yes the southern cities' populations will have to endure the terror from their oppressors a while longer, but we are going for the head of the monster and once that is taken care of the rest will follow.....It's simply a matter or trust, and it is very difficult to win the trust of people while at the same time, you are bombing and invading their country. At least that is how it appears to me.> Basra is a tinder box waiting to blow as escaping civilians are shot by Iraqi militia; the ‘black watch British guards ’ saved the fleeing citizens by placing themselves between the mortar fire and 2000 fleeing citizens. Safawan hundreds of people swarm aid convoys in a display of need of humanitarian aid. Sir Galahad is arriving today in Um Qasar with 650 tons of humanitarian aid. The first engagement with the first ( Medina) of six armoured and mechanized divisions (4+2) of elite republican guard near Karbela is expected to start I next two days. Its obliteration might help provoking the simmering revolt which every one was expecting. The fall of Basra without any civilian loss and Nasseriah in next few days will help the campaign immensely. I still firmly believe that Basra and Nasseriah fall will determine the fate of Saddam and Baghdad. Al- Kut- Najaf straight axis allied forces is a frontal formation that would be too mighty for any regular classic Republican Armoured and mechanized divisions to overlook With T-72 tanks and Soviet era armaments Republicans have a severe handicap their tanks are target in an armoured battle 2 km short of their own firing range. Irregulars can inflict pain to supply lines but not a body blow that is suppose to come from the Republican guards who are not capable to deliver such a blow. Short of some apocalyptic chemical usage for which US soldiers are adequately prepared and only one party that would suffer the most that will be Iraqi public who would become inadvertent target or may be a callous intentional target of Saddam and I doubt he cares for his people more than his own regime. Next question is would republican guards who are trained as regular staff college officers do that? I doubt it! The final capitulation if a classic battle field is set is the only outcome; I would definitely be surprised if Waterloo type of confrontation and a final root may than results into street to street battle. The present shaping of the campaign as Allied forces accumulate an awesome force in face of the Republican guards leads to only one way for Republican guards a classic set battle scene for final glory battle for the pride or to turn their guns towards tyrant of Baghdad and save themselves from ultimate obliteration. If Basra and Karbela population becomes restive and freed and they it see clearly the chances are that a Decca like fall is more imminent. Implosion of population and their freedom is the basis of the allied strategy and that is how I have read it always if that fails than all bets are off. Shiites and Kurds Iraqis will finally throw the yoke, it has been delayed but once the towns are cleared off the militias the tide will definitely turn.

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