| To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (19694) | 10/29/2003 2:55:43 PM |
| From: davidk555 | Read Replies (3) of 42809 |
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| I agree with much of your post Tim, with a couple of modifications. In January, 2000, Bob only recommended a 60/40 split of cash reserves/equities as part of his tactical asset allocation. (He didn't move to 65/35 until the fall of 2000). When the market rose following his January call, Bob pointed out that his tactical asset allocation recomemendation would capture most of the upside potential of the market, yet also cushion against the downside. Can't take anything away from that call. However, for reasons unknown, Bob never issued a full 100% sell signal, despite having said he would be out of the market when his model identified a bear. I would also like to point out that as far as my calculations go, if you followed ALL of his market timing advice (i.e. including the QQQ), I don't think you would be doing any better than someone who regularly contributes all of his 401(k) money into a retirement account into equities on a regular basis. - David |
