| To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42307) | 12/22/2008 9:45:12 PM |
| From: Jacob Snyder | 6 Recommendations Read Replies (4) of 45940 |
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Gartner Dataquest, track record of semi-equip forecasts:
18 December 2008 Capital spending on semiconductor equipment is already projected to drop 30.6%, to $31.1 billion in 2008, and will fall 31.7% in 2009
10 November 2008 ...lowering our capital equipment forecast... Our new most likely scenario has revenue declining nearly 18% in 2009.
16 October 2008 Worldwide semiconductor capital spending will decline nearly 26% in 2008. Instability in the memory sector, combined with a weak U.S. and world economy, will lead to a further drop of 13% in 2009.
29 August 2008 Capital spending will decrease in 2008 as the excessive spending in the memory segments in 2006 and 2007 hits home. Declines of 22.4% in capital spending and 21.5% in wafer fab equipment spending are expected for 2008.
20 August 2008 In 2008, semiconductor back-end-equipment markets are expected to decline more than 17% compared with 2007. Modest BEE growth is expected for 2009.
18 August 2008 2008 semiconductor capital spending will contract to $49.2 billion, which is more than 22% lower than 2007 spending of $63.4 billion. The 2008 capital spending contraction is being triggered by excess capacity, specifically in memory segments, as well as weak economic conditions worldwide.
6 May 2008 Facing strong head winds from a weakening U.S. economy and a collapsing DRAM market, semiconductor capital equipment markets will contract in 2008 before staging a mild recovery in 2009.
11 January 2008 Semiconductor capital spending will register growth of about 5% in 2007 to $59.1 billion. Current expectations are that 2008 spending will be down about 13%, as memory spending contracts to compensate for excess capacity, specifically in dynamic random-access memory.
12 November 2007 Semiconductor capital equipment growth is slowing; the trough will push out into the first quarter of 2008, leading to a flat 2008 for semiconductor capital equipment markets. Scenarios note some upside in 2008, but issues in the global semiconductor environment mean a downside risk is greater.
6 October 2007 The back-end equipment market will realize a modest decline in 2007. A slight rebound is in place for 2008, with growth in the mid single digits.
15 August 2007 2007 is proving to be a flat year for capital spending in the semiconductor industry. GARTNER expects 2007 to register growth of 0.6%, bringing spending to $56.3 billion. This will be followed by 4.8% growth in 2008, when spending will reach $59.3 billion.
30 July 2007 Semiconductor capital equipment spending is in a shallow correction, although sales will still rise 2.7% in 2007, and growth will revive to reach 6.2% in 2008.
18 May 2007 Semiconductor capital equipment spending will face a shallow correction in 2007, with sales revenue shrinking 3% from 2006. After this pause, growth will revive and reach 14.9% in 2008. Aggressive spending in memory still drives the market as manufacturers add capacity in response to growing demand.
5 February 2007 Strong growth of 26.3% for wafer fab equipment in 2006, combined with strong inventories and soft demand, will lead to flat growth in 2007 as the industry pauses before another ramp-up in 2008.
18 December 2006 Semiconductor capital equipment realized solid growth in 2006, expanding 24.9% driven by double-digit expansion in semiconductor demand and a heating competitive investment race in memory. However, higher-than-expected inventories and a slowing macroeconomic environment will create a pause in 2007.
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15 February 2002 In one of the worst declines in semiconductor market HISTORY, Asia/Pacific companies' capital spending fell by 44 percent in 2001 and is forecast to decrease in 2002 by 9 percent to $9.8 billion compared with 2001.
19 February 2001 Led by foundry companies, Asia/Pacific companies' capital spending increased by 82 percent to US$18.3 billion from 1999 to 2000. Asia/Pacific companies' capital spending is expected to decrease by 1 percent to US$18.2 billion in 2001 because of global economics and the market situation.
2 October 2000 The semiconductor recovery is in full swing, driven by strong unit demand. Spending for capacity additions strongly accelerated in 2000, and positive growth is expected to continue into 2002.
14 February 2000 Wafer Fab Equipment and Capital Spending Forecast: How Exciting Will 2000 Be? The semiconductor recovery accelerated, and unit demand was better than expected. Spending for capacity additions began in earnest, initially in the logic-centered foundry industry, but is expected to broadly expand into memory in mid-2000.
http://www.gartner.com/7_search/Search3Frame.jsp?op=3&node=7198&bop=4&n=7198&f=3&v=0&bc=1
(search: semiconductor capital spending, by date)
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