| To: jttmab who wrote (8275) | 10/15/1998 7:50:00 PM |
| From: Simon Cardinale | Read Replies (3) of 16960 |
| |
My CC notes, without comment:
sega nec vdo - $13M
Banshee contributed more than they expected
met all Banshee promises
turned down 150k sales as overkill
checked with dimd who said sell-thru was fine
sell-thru has increased, but too late
most customers bought projected amount
dimd bought 10% of projections which were confirmed as late as July
anecdotal : 4x increase since drop in price for V2
expect Banshee to exceed their initial expectations
will announce significant OEMs in the next few weeks
Babbages? EB? - 3dfx t-shirts weekends during xmas
1998 is opening act to big show of 1999
OEM response leads them to believe volume sales in 1Q99 will be strong
3Dfx's prospects today are best they've ever been
V2 - 2/3 revenue
Banshee almost 30%
V1 - remainder
4 biggest: creaf largest customer , tiawan > 10% , guillmot, and dimd (Banshee)
larger fail rate than expected
Banshee slightly lower margin than V2
Questions:
inventory reserve $4M
V1.5 was V2 on 2 chips w/ same die (1 TMU?), was in die form.
may be used if volume picks up, would need to acquire additional chip
under 500,000 V2s could result, after 3rd chip ordered, cycle time less than 13 weeks.
competitors - ati, s3, nvidia, ourselves
positioned to be a leader, if not the leader
ad budget big for the industry, reduced somewhat for 4Q, branding important in 4Q
3Q V2 > $40/chip, in 4Q $35-$40, Banshee ~$30ish range
Inventory of V2 depleted by end of 1Q, maybe by end of Dec
increase in R&D - new research center in houston, new design tools
stakes enormous in 1999
multiple segments, multiple design teams will make 3dfx competitive in 1999
interest income ~$1M, rest is sega settlement after legal expenses
making connections with retailers to track sell-thru
boardmakers have their own agenda, can't be relied on
2Q purchases were suspicious, said no to some, should have said no to more
some customers are less able or willing to talk about inventory, but they won't be dependent on that.
weekly or biweekly info from retailers already set up
Q: nvidia's roadmap helping OEM sales? - A: doesn't look like tnt OEMs all that extensive, they have yield problems, performance shortfalls that detract from nvidia's roadmap we'll see the power of their roadmap over the next few months
several hundred thousand Banshee into the channel, disappearing off the retail sales
2M units of V2 shipped
not talking to console makers. missed the console boat while they were dealing with SEGA
set-top boxes, webtv types will compete well with consoles in next gen
will be on show floor at COMDEX, hope to have OEM announcements in time for COMDEX
1/3 Banshee classic OEM, 1/3 system integrator, 1/3 retail
V2 80% retail, substantial OEM for 1st time in 4Q
2D is free now,
Glide allows 3dfx to have exclusive content (Unreal and Diablo 2), differentiates 3dfx
Performance delta is still there, tho decreased. When new products come out Glide will become important again (like glide support for multitexturing and V2). Allows innovation of new features with new architectures.
27% income tax rate for remainder 1998. 30-32% in 1999.
Simon |
