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To: JC Reddy who wrote (916)7/2/1998 5:54:00 AM
From: JDNRespond to of 3638
 
Dear JC: I also listened to the CC. First let me congratulate you on you extraordinary notes. You sure write fast!!! I just listened and agree with what you have reported here and add that it is rather complete. The only thing I wish to add is this: I was VERY impressed with Steven's apologizes which he repeated various times during the CC and it was the LAST comment made of the CC. It is obvious to me that he is very embarrassed, mentioning first time in 40 consecative qtrs and all that. Anyhow, I came away from listening feeling to myself, if it is at all humanly possible Steven is NEVER going to allow that to happen again!!! I think thats important. He seems motivated! Now, because he is rather ashamed I think he is cautious about 4th qtr and 1999. He NEVER said they wouldnt do well, what he said was, "because of this SURPRISE we are going to err on the side of caution when we make our next forecast--which will be at the July 16th CC.
So all in all, frankly I feel better now than I did last night. I am not suggesting anything investment wise other than this: If it drops significantly (like to 17-which frankly I doubt it will) it will be a SPECULATIVE opportunity. If you wish to be more sure of the investment wait till the 7/16 CC where they will lay out everything. However, if things are not so bad at that CC it is very unlikely you will get an opportunity to buy below 20 or maybe even 24. So we are left with a crap shoot. JDN PS: I am not selling at these prices .



To: JC Reddy who wrote (916)7/2/1998 6:03:00 AM
From: PaperChaseRespond to of 3638
 
The big mistake PMTC made was buying ComputerVision. Their fate was sealed when they made that disasterous decision. I dumped PMTC the day they announced that deal. The deal didn't make sense and now they don't want to own up to it. So they'll sheepishly and conveniently blame everything else, ie. Asia, new product slowness, etc.

Sometimes managers think they are infallible and have the golden touch to fix shipwrecks like ComputerVision. Obviously, from the insider selling, managers had a change of heart after buying that dog.

The writing was on the wall early on for all to see. You had to be disconnected from the world to miss seeing how badly this situation would unfold. Maybe the perma-bulls will save the day.



To: JC Reddy who wrote (916)7/2/1998 4:57:00 PM
From: dougjnRespond to of 3638
 
Bought 4k at 16-1/32 today. Normally I'd let a collapse like this settle a bit more, but not in this case. I'm real happy to have gotten in at this price.

Nobody is really challenging PMTC's leadership. (Well there is Desault, but if anything PMTC is making progress there.) Indeed, PMTC is expanding its market space into fairly unoccupied territory with the Windchill product.

Who knows, maybe there is another soft quarter or so to come, but it is all transition problems. Longer term positive.

And, guess what. Japan is about to turn, at least in the market's perception. The fear of financial collapse is already lifting, and some indications of slow reflation will I think be coming in.

PMTC's customers may continue to be somewhat sluggish in their orders, but the Japanese auto makers aren't going to stop buying leading CAD programs from PMTC, and aren't going to stop being able to afford them either.

Doug

Doug




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